![]() “The recent excessive rainfall totals and accompanying tragic flash flooding associated with Henri and Ida suggest that an update of the Atlas 14 report was prudent,” said State Climatologist Dr. This new data fills a data gap of some two decades allowing the state to plan and design projects based on current data. The current Atlas 14 volume available for New Jersey was last updated in 2006 and includes data only through 1999. In New Jersey, Atlas 14 is often used to analyze flood potential in waterways and in the design of stormwater infrastructure. NOAA Atlas 14 is an ongoing study used to analyze historical rainfall data to update statistical rainfall events. The studies build from data currently published in the NOAA Atlas 14, a federal resource of precipitation totals used to aid in engineering and design planning and the standard resource for rain depth associated with precipitation events. Notably, the studies will provide the scientific basis for the ongoing development and modification of rules to be introduced under the state’s NJPACT (Protecting Against Climate Threats) and NJREAL (Resilient Environments and Landscapes) initiatives as directed by Governor Murphy’s Executive Order 100. “These studies will provide better guidance for estimating and managing future risks to human life, property, and infrastructure.” “One of the consequences of climate change is that we can no longer assume that what has happened in the past is a guide to the future,” Dr. Anthony Broccoli, Co-Director of the Rutgers Climate Institute and faculty member in the Department of Environmental Sciences. These two reports went through a peer review by the DEP Science Advisory Board’s standing committee for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, led by Dr. “As we move into a warmer and wetter world, it is crucial that the most recent rainfall observations and state-of-the-art climate model simulations of future rainfall be incorporated into decisions regarding flood potential, infrastructure design and resiliency planning,” Dr. Precipitation is likely to increase by more than 20% from the 1999 baseline by 2100, and projected changes will be greater in the northern part of the state than in the southern and coastal areas, with projections for some northwestern counties seeing the greatest increase, some by as much as 50%.Extreme precipitation amounts are 2.5% higher now than the 1999 data suggests, and some parts of the state have seen a 10% increase above the outdated data. The precipitation expectations that presently guide state policy, planning and development criteria, and which rely upon data obtained through 1999, do not accurately reflect current precipitation intensity conditions. Precipitation is already 2.5% to 10% higher. ![]() We all have the power to ensure that what we build today will stand the test of time and a changing climate.” “By building upon our scientific understanding, we can take the wise steps that the science demands: from planning more resilient development, to enhancing our stormwater and flood control infrastructure and beyond. “As we saw late this summer with the remnants of Tropical Storms Henri and Ida, more frequent and intense storms are our reality today, and we can expect these extreme precipitation events to continue, even worsen, in the years ahead,” Commissioner LaTourette continued. “While New Jersey is ground zero for some of the worst impacts of climate change, this science provides us another opportunity to ensure that our communities become more resilient,” said Commissioner LaTourette. These reports, which fill in 20 years of climate data gaps, will aid governments, communities and businesses in their work to build greater climate resilience. Arthur DeGaetano, director of the Northeast Regional Climate Center and professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Cornell University, and peer-reviewed by DEP’s Science Advisory Board, provide a range of rainfall projections dependent on warming scenario. ![]() ![]() (21/P038) TRENTON – The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection has released two studies by the Northeast Regional Climate Center, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) partner, confirming increases in precipitation across New Jersey over the last 20 years, and projecting further increases in precipitation intensity through the end of this century due to climate change, Environmental Protection Commissioner Shawn M. ![]()
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